Early fighting (21 February – 17 April 2022)

Fighting began on 21 February 2022, when Russian forces alongside separatist militias renewed fighting in Avdiivka.^[16] When Russia officially started its invasion of Ukraine, Avdiivka was one of its main targets. On 13 March, Russian forces bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant^[21] although the Russians accused Ukraine of sabotaging it.^[22] The National Police of Ukraine said on 22 March that Russia used Tornado-S MLRSs in bombardments of Avdiivka, allegedly causing civilian casualties.^[23] It was reported on 25 March that Artem Murakhovskyi, a commander of the Azov Regiment, was killed in Avdiivka.^[24]

Escalation (18 April – 27 July 2022)

Avdiivka 1st school after shelling by white phosphorus munitions

On 18 April, Russia renewed its invasion on Eastern Ukraine, with both sides proclaiming the beginning of the "battle of Donbas" and Russia beginning to heavily shell and attack Avdiivka.^[25][26][27] Around 2,000 of Avdiivka's residents were forced to flee underground.^[28][29][30] Ukraine claimed to have repelled Russian advances in Avdiivka on 19 April.^[31]

During the battle, use of white phosphorus munitions by Russian forces was reported several times. Governor of Donetsk Oblast Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a phosphorus attack on the city industrial zone on 26 March,^[32] on the area of the coking plant on 26 April, and on the city center, causing several fires, the next day.^[33][34] On 29 April, videos of the Russian army shelling Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka with a thermobaric weapon were published.^[35] On 18 May, Avdiivka 1st school was destroyed by a Russian attack with phosphorus munitions.^[36][37] On May 26, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing through Avdiivka, capturing many areas in the city.^[38]

On 1 June, the DPR took control of a major highway.^[39] On 6 June, the DPR took territory near Kamianka.^[40] On 12 June, Russia again bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant.^[41] School No. 6 was destroyed on 21 June, being the third school destroyed in Avdiivka.^[42] On 24 June, Russian forces fired on Avdiivka.^[43] Russian forces later captured Novoselivka Druha on 4 July, which is 10 km northeast of Avdiivka, in an attempt to encircle the city.^[44] On 7 July, Russian forces shelled Avdiivka for 24 hours. They hit infrastructure, a hospital, residential buildings, a bus depot, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.^[45]

On 18 July, the DPR claimed it had "half-surrounded" Avdiivka, having blocked two of the roads leading into the town. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) an American based non-profit think-tank, also stated that fighting north of Avdiivka had intensified on July 18.^[46] However, Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist and regular critic of Russia's war effort in Ukraine, said that the DPR's forces were unable to make many gains due to Ukrainian artillery.^[47]

Renewed assaults and capture of Pisky (28 July 2022 – March 2023)

On 28 July, DPR and Russian forces launched an offensive to surround Avdiivka. Russian and separatist forces assaulted the towns of Krasnohorivka, Pisky, and other towns north of Avdiivka.^[48] On 31 July, the Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said that only 10% of the pre-war population of Avdiivka remained, or about 2,500 people.^[49]

Ukraine said on 5 August that it lost the Butivka coal mine to Russia that was pushed to the outskirts of Avdiivka.^[50][51] On August 7, combat footage showed that Russian forces had reached the centre of Pisky,^[52] and they fully captured the entirety of Pisky by 24 August.^[53] In early September, several separatist units, including the Sparta Battalion and Somalia Battalion, launched an attack in the wider Avdiivka area, most importantly near Pisky.^[7] As of late September, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian forces "remain[ed] on the defensive" in Avdiivka.^[54] On 10 October, Ukraine said Russia was continuing its offensive in Avdiivka and was trying to encircle the city.^[55] In mid-January 2023, Russian and DPR forces made an attempt to capture the village of Vodyane, the action was described by a British military blogger as "calamitous".^[56]

Later encirclement attempts (March 2023 – October 2023)

In March 2023 Ukrainian commander at Avdiivka said that Russian forces were trying to fully encircle the city.^[57] On 24 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have repulsed a Russian attack, and to have killed or wounded 200 Russian soldiers and destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.^[58] On 21 May, the Ukrainians claimed to have defeated a mechanized Russian assault near Avdiivka. During the engagement, they claimed to have killed 40 Russian soldiers and to have destroyed 5 armored vehicles, including at least two tanks.^[59]

Fighting in the battle intensified during the beginning of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, with Russian forces putting pressure on the outskirts of the town and Ukrainians digging in.^[60] On 10 September 2023, Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold in the urban portion of the village of Opytne 3km southwest of Avdiivka and 2km north of the Donetsk International Airport claiming to secured the southern border of the city, ending a threat of near encirclement.^[61][62]

Capture of the southern industrial zone

On 13 November, Russian troops advanced in the so-called Promka industrial zone near Yasnynuvata Lane on Avdiivka's southern flank,^[92] an important fortified frontline area located on a hill and held by Ukraine since 2014.^[93][94][95] By 16-17 November, the Russians had reportedly captured at least 60% of the southeastern industrial zone while expanding the "gray zone" on the Stepove-Krasnohorivka axis north of Avdiivka. The British Ministry of Defence assessed that Russian forces were "almost certainly attempting a pincer movement" of Avdiivka, but insisted capturing the coke plant on the northern axis would be costly as it "provides Ukraine with a localized defensive advantage".^[96][97][98]

In mid-November 2023, Ukrainian troops told Agence France-Presse they were using drones, grenades, mortars, artillery, and 25mm cannon fire from M2 Bradleys to defend against Russian infantry assaults, which they said were intended to "exhaust our lines with constant waves of attacks." One Ukrainian drone operator alleged that Russian troops typically advanced at night in groups of five to seven soldiers then attacked at sunrise.^[99] The Ukrainians recaptured some positions in a counterattack near Stepove and the coke plant on 19 November as fighting continued south of Novokalynove, located 10km northwest of Avdiivka. Russian troops purportedly broke through Ukrainian defenses near the Yasynuvata-2 station in the industrial zone on 20 November, as a spokesman for Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade said the Russians continued small infantry assaults despite increasing snowfall.^[100][101] A Ukrainian counterattack on the Yasynuvata-2 station failed on 21 November, according to Russian sources. Meanwhile, Mayor Barabash observed that the Russians were using more vehicles as they advanced further along the streets of the industrial zone, but continued infantry-based assaults on the open fields.^[102] On 22 November, Russian sources reported the capture of Ukrainian defensive fortifications southwest of the industrial zone, while Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun reported the destruction of two Russian tanks and five or seven AFVs during a mechanized assault. Ukrainian military observer Konstyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russians committed the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment—part of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division—to Avdiivka.^[103]

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said Russia's "third wave" of assaults on Avdiivka began on 23 November and claimed to have repelled several Russian mechanized assault columns over the next two days. Mayor Barabash claimed weather conditions such as snow and heavy winds were hindering Russian logistics, meanwhile the Russians reportedly controlled 95% of the industrial zone by 24 November.^[104] On 25-26 November, Russian sources reported advances near the Yasynuvata-2 railway station and claimed most or all of the southern industrial zone had been captured. Geolocated footage showed Russian armored vehicles operating freely and bombarding Ukrainian positions in the northern part of the industrial zone as Ukrainian infantry retreated north towards the nearby suburbs.^{[105][106][107][95]} A Ukrainian soldier interviewed by Radio Svoboda on 27 November acknowledged recent Russian gains, but disputed that the entire industrial zone had been captured while DeepState open-source intelligence war mapping reported the Ukrainians still retained some fortified positions in the district.^[95][108]

The Promka industrial zone was reportedly under full Russian control by 4 December,^[109] while Roman Pohorilyi of DeepState mapping said the Russians had consolidated their positions in the district by 21 December and were bringing in infantry and equipment.^[110]

Continued encirclement attempts

By late November, Ukrainian forces were maintaining supply lines into Avdiivka amid harsh weather conditions and continuous Russian pressure from the north, east and south. On 28 November, Russian forces were reportedly advancing from "all sides" as ongoing heavy fighting near the coke plant was reported. Mayor Barabash said the coke plant was "almost completely destroyed" amid seemingly constant Russian artillery and airstrikes that were gradually weakening Ukrainian defenses. Russian troops reportedly outnumbered Ukrainian defenders five-to-one and held the air and artillery advantage, as Ukrainian sources reported shortages of 155mm howitzer ammunition and insufficient supplies of anti-armor and anti-air munitions, according to DeepState and the ISW.^{[95][107][111][112]}

Damaged building in Avdiivka, 29 December 2023

Ukrainian defenders continued to clash with Russian troops around Stepove;^[113] in early December video emerged online of militants in Russian uniforms apparently executing two surrendering Ukrainian soldiers while clearing a dugout near Stepove, prompting an investigation by Ukraine's Donetsk public prosecutor's office and prompting Ukrainian authorities to accuse Russia of a war crime.^[114]

On 25 December, the Ukrainians claimed that they were currently bringing up reserves to counter Russian forces, and that "every day they lose 300-400 people killed and wounded and a lot of military equipment". However, the Russians were reportedly pulling up their own reserves, and that “one column can contain both the latest and very old Soviet models of equipment”. The next day, the Ukrainian MoD said that reports that one of their brigades lost 108 men killed on Christmas Eve were "fake".^[115][116]

Ukrainian claims of Russian casualties

Since Russia's renewed assault on Avdiivka in October 2023, the Ukrainians and Western observers both reported disproportionate Russian losses, claiming that Russia was using "human wave tactics" during the battle.^[117][118] One Ukrainian artillery officer alleged Russian commanders were sending their soldiers on near-suicidal assaults.^[119] The losses for the Russian 90th Tank Division alone that day were claimed to be 820 killed or wounded, about 80 armoured vehicles (including at least one BMPT Terminator), 18 artillery pieces, more than a dozen multiple rocket launchers, and about 30 other vehicles. By 12 November, the Ukrainians claimed that the division had lost between 2,500 and 3,000 soldiers, and 250 tanks and other armored vehicles, thus “losing combat effectiveness”.^[120][121]

On 10 October, geolocated footage collated by military analyst Andrew Perpetua, showed 70 Russian and 15 Ukrainian destroyed vehicles. However, Ukrainian sources claimed even higher losses. Total Russian casualties in just one day were claimed by Ukraine high as 34 tanks and 91 other armored vehicles destroyed, with human losses reportedly being 820 killed and 2,400 wounded.^[122]

According to an analysis by the Kyiv Post, the Russian 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army has been rendered “combat ineffective” as a result of heavy losses suffered during the offensive in this area. Its worst-hit unit, the 114th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, lost 190 dead and 160 wounded in October, from an initial strength of 1,800 to 2,000 men, of which just 600 to 800 were assigned to “combat duties”. The Ukrainians listed eleven brigades or equivalents under the 2nd CAA's command which have suffered similar losses, with a total 1,500 front-line soldiers dead and 2,000 seriously wounded out of a total strength (including non-combat troops) of 20,000 to 25,000 men.^[123]

On 13 October, according to the Kyiv Post, independent analysts estimates that the Russians suffered losses of 1,000 to 2,000 troops killed or wounded in the first 96 hours of the offensive, along with 30 to 40 tanks and 90 to 100 armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile Ukrainian drone operators reported losses of 100 Russian soldiers and two tanks within the first ten minutes of the fighting with no losses of their own.^[124]

Ukrainian forces repel a Russian assault across the open field west of Krasnohorivka (north of Avdiivka) in late 2023. The Avdiivka Coke Plant can be seen in the background.

Russian casualties near Krasnohorivka, late 2023.

On 14 October, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, claimed that the Russians had lost 3,000 soldiers and 300 pieces of equipment in the past five days since the beginning of the Russian's offensive.^[125]

On 20 October, a report by David Axe of Forbes stated that Ukraine's claim of destroying 175 Russian armored vehicles in the previous two days (including 55 tanks) is nearly 20 times higher than the daily average of three Russian tanks destroyed since February 2022. Meanwhile, according to a report from the Euromaidan Press, 65% of the nearly 1,400 Russian soldiers claimed to have been killed on 19 October occurred on just two 5 kilometer segments of the front near Avdiivka. They also stated that these losses are almost 50% higher than the first day of the offensive, although this attack was reportedly not as intense as the first one.^[126] Also on 20 October, according to Ukrainian sources, the Russians lost 900 soldiers killed and wounded, as well as 50 tanks and 100 armored vehicles damaged or destroyed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers operating there also claimed that they had destroyed 200 armored vehicles over the last four days alone.^{[127][128][129]}

On 22 October, the fighting had become so intense that Ukrainian military historian Vasyl Pavlov compared the situation around Avdiivka to the Battles of Rzhev during World War II. “What’s happening around Avdiivka can be compared to a series of events that took place on the Eastern Front during World War II, or let’s say such a well-known event as the Battle of Rzhev,” he claimed in an interview with Espreso TV. In addition, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential administration, told TV Rain that Russia had lost between 5,000 and 6,000 troops in just over a week of their offensive in Avdiivka, as well as 400 armored vehicles. Indeed, according to the Ukrainian military, by 23 October the Russians had been losing as many as 1,000 men killed in action each day during its attempt to take the town, as well as “tens of tanks and armored vehicles”. The recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka “have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD (Ministry of Defense),” according to British military intelligence.^{[72][130][131]}

On 28 October, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov claimed that Ukrainian troops had killed 4,000 Russian soldiers in the battle so far, which roughly lines up with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's claim the previous day, that Russia had lost “at least a brigade” (between 2,000 and 8,000 personnel) near Avdiivka.^[132]

On 29 October, Ukrainian spokesman, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, claimed that they had killed 6,500 Russian soldiers and destroyed 100 tanks (including T-90s) and 250 armored vehicles since 10 October. "If we talk about losses in such a short period on a relatively small part of the front line, Avdiivka is already the largest defeat on the part of the Russians," he also stated.^[133]

On 10 November, Ukrainian C-in-C Valerii Zaluzhnyi claimed that his troops had killed 10,000 Russians and destroyed 100 tanks, 250 armored vehicles, 50-100 artillery pieces and seven Su-25 planes. Colonel Shuptun, meanwhile, claimed that Russian casualties average between 400 and 600 casualties per day.^[134][135]

On 11 November, in a renewed Russian assault on the town, the Ukrainians claimed that the Russians lost 800 men killed or wounded in the last day.^[136]

On 13 November, British intelligence as well as Russian military bloggers claimed that Storm-Z in Avdiivka had been sustaining between 40-70% losses attempting to take the city.^[137][138] Meanwhile, on 28 November, a Russian Army volunteer reported that his regiment had lost 1,000 men killed in just 10 days, or about half it’s strength.^[139]

On 13 December, an officer in the Freedom of Russia Legion, based on data from the Ukrainian MoD, claimed that the Russians had lost 30,000 dead in their attempts to take the city, with half of these occurring before October 2023.^[140][141]

On 20 December, the Ukrainians, whilst admitting that the Russians had advanced between 1.5 and 2 kilometers in two months (from 10 October), claimed that the Russians had suffered 25,000 men killed and wounded in the Donetsk Region, 80% of which “concerned the Avdiivka direction”. 200 tanks and 400 other armored vehicles were also claimed to have been lost. 3,010 Russian soldiers and 21 tanks were claimed to have been “eliminated” in one period between 7 and 9 December alone.^[142][143]

Western estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties

According to Ragnar Gudmundsson, an Iceland-based analyst, “Russia hit a probable wartime record of more than 1,400 killed in combat in a single day on Oct. 20 and averaged 900 men a day killed in combat from 10-20 October, coinciding with its push toward Avdiivka, a key city on the eastern front north of Donetsk city”.^[144]

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, in an October 26, 2023 briefing, reported that fresh Russian troops were being thrown into the battle "under-trained, under-equipped, and unprepared for combat," in "human wave" attacks. Retreating Russian soldiers, the U.S. reported, were apparently being shot by orders of their own commanders. By the end of October, the U.S. was estimating that losses in the fight had cost Russia a battalion's worth of equipment, including "at least" 125 armoured vehicles.^[19]

On 26 October, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's reported losses around Avdiivka in late October had surpassed the infamous losses in armored vehicles during the battle of Vuhledar.^[77]

In November 2023, Russian casualties were reportedly so high that they were comparable to those of Imperial Russia during World War I. The British MoD reported that the Russians had suffered a daily average of 931 casualties, while on 1 December military analyst Ragnar Gudmundsson estimated that they had risen to 1,020 over the previous seven days. Both claimed that most of these losses had "occurred in the relentless assaults on Avdiivka, a town in Donbas region". This surpassed March 2023 as the deadliest month for Russian forces, during the peak of the Battle of Bakhmut, which saw a daily average of 776 losses per day.^[145][146]

By December 2023, the U.S. claimed that Russia had suffered over 13,000 casualties in the previous two months near Avdiivka, or 3,000 killed or wounded for every square mile captured. Ukrainian losses were estimated to be much lower, at “a few thousand”. Meanwhile, the Russians had lost an estimated 411 pieces of heavy equipment in the battle, including 143 tanks, while Ukraine had lost just 30, which includes just 14 tanks.^{[147][148][149]} In an engagement fought on 27 December for the town of Stepove, just north of the city, a reinforced battalion of 500 Russians attacked the Ukrainians, with half of them being killed. 21 tanks and 14 IFVs were also confirmed to have been destroyed, against just two Ukrainian Leopard 2s being abandoned.^[150]

On 30 December 2023, American analyst and former Seal Team Six commander Chuck Pfarrer gave a much higher estimate of 40,000 Russians killed in the battle for an advance of 1-2 kilometres, which is eight times more soldiers than the Battle of Vuhledar (which he said cost Russia 5,000 dead, 46 tanks and 100 armored vehicles). On 11 December alone, he claimed that Russia had lost 430 men killed and eight tanks, 14 APCs, and two artillery systems destroyed.^[151][152]

Personnel and tactics

Western media and observers compared the battle of Avdiivka to the battle of Bakhmut, drawing parallels in regards to battlefield conditions, Russian tactics, and reported casualty rates.^{[167][168][169]}

After Russia renewed its assault on Avdiivka in October 2023, their spearheading assault force reportedly sustained substantial losses in personnel and equipment on the northern flank near Krasnohorivka.^[77] On 26 October 2023, reports of high Russian losses in Avdiivka prompted Igor Girkin, a jailed pro-war Russian nationalist and frequent critic of the Russian war effort, to harshly criticize the offensive capabilities of Russian forces in the battle, arguing they were not able to achieve even limited objectives in favorable conditions without suffering significant casualties.^[170]

Ivan Smaga, the deputy commander of the 25th storm battalion of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, also emphasized Russian casualties in a report by The Guardian in December 2023. He claimed Russian assaults started with "...groups of 10 men. Now it's one or two or three without support". He also remarked on the tenacity of Russian soldiers to survive amid Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks, alleging they would dig holes, crawl over frozen ground, and play dead amid the corpses of their comrades. Smaga demanded more Western-supplied equipment such as heavy artillery to resist Russia's strength in numbers and more airpower to challenge Russian tactical air superiority.^[109]

Strategic value

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visiting Avdiivka on 29 December 2023

Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a Kyiv-based think tank, assessed in late 2023 that the Russian capture of Avdiivka would not have a strategic impact on the overall war, but "would make the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub." The capture of Avdiivka would serve as a morale boost for Russian forces and deal a psychological blow to the Ukrainians, Bielieskov added.^[20]

According to the Institute for the Study of War, several Russian milbloggers proclaimed in early November 2023 that the ongoing battle was already an operational success because it reduced the intensity of Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk city.^[171]