I strongly suggest you to go for HTML5 even if you won't use any of the new semantic elements.
Quoting from Google Maps API:
<!DOCTYPE html>
Most current browsers will render content that is declared with this
DOCTYPE in "standards mode" which means that your application should
be more cross-browser compliant. The DOCTYPE is also designed to
degrade gracefully; browsers that don't understand it will ignore it,
and use "quirks mode" to display their content.
And if you want to work with almost any web 2.0 API, you'll have trouble with XHTML Strict / Transitional.
Declare <!DOCTYPE html>
and you can feel pretty comfortable.
CSS version is not important, since there are some CSS2 properties not supported by modern browsers yet. You have to rely on sites like these to check the compatibility of each property that you think is essential to display the content:
- Quirks Mode
- Can i Use
- Litmus
Generally, you can simply Google "apropertyname browser support" to obtain very useful informations.
Keep in mind that websites don't have to look exactly the same in every browser, your main goal is to make the content readable and available at "any" condition.
Speaking of IE, check yourself the usage stats Updated to Aug/Sept 2012:
- StatCounter IE6: notevenlisted, IE7: 1.12%, IE8: 13.08%
- W3Counter IE6: notevenlisted, IE7: 4.60%, IE8: 10.19%
- Wikimedia IE6: 0.99%, IE7: 3.44%, IE8: 8.46%
So at most you may worry about IE7.
You may also create a "backward-compatible" version (basically with css and javascript disabled) for those who use IE7 and below, with conditional comments. So you'll surely provide readability, then add a link to switch back to the normal version (at their own risk).
Even most of the APIs (eg Vimeo, Facebook, Google Maps) and libraries and plugins etc. don't work on IE7 anymore. Or at least they cause JavaScript errors.