In math, this is thought of as a "balls in bins" problem - 32 balls are randomly dropped into 32 bins. You can enumerate the possible patterns and calculate their probabilities to determine the distribution. A naive approach will not work though as the number of patterns is huge: (63!)/(32!)(31!) is "almost" a quintillion.
It is possible to tackle though if you build up the solution recursively and use conditional probabilities.
Look for a paper called "The exact distribution of the maximum, minimum and the range of Multinomial/Dirichlet and Multivariate Hypergeometric frequencies" by Charles J. Corrado.
In the following, we start at leftmost bucket and calculate the probabilities for each number of balls that could have fallen into it. Then we move one to the right and determine the conditional probabilities of each number of balls that could be in that bucket given the number of balls and buckets already used.
Apologies for the VBA code, but VBA was all I had available when motivated to answer :).
Function nCr#(ByVal n#, ByVal r#)
Static combin#()
Static size#
Dim i#, j#
If n = r Then
nCr = 1
Exit Function
End If
If n > size Then
ReDim combin(0 To n, 0 To n)
combin(0, 0) = 1
For i = 1 To n
combin(i, 0) = 1
For j = 1 To i
combin(i, j) = combin(i - 1, j - 1) + combin(i - 1, j)
Next
Next
size = n
End If
nCr = combin(n, r)
End Function
Function p_binom#(n#, r#, p#)
p_binom = nCr(n, r) * p ^ r * (1 - p) ^ (n - r)
End Function
Function p_next_bucket_balls#(balls#, balls_used#, total_balls#, _
bucket#, total_buckets#, bucket_capacity#)
If balls > bucket_capacity Then
p_next_bucket_balls = 0
Else
p_next_bucket_balls = p_binom(total_balls - balls_used, balls, 1 / (total_buckets - bucket + 1))
End If
End Function
Function p_capped_buckets#(n#, cap#)
Dim p_prior, p_update
Dim bucket#, balls#, prior_balls#
ReDim p_prior(0 To n)
ReDim p_update(0 To n)
p_prior(0) = 1
For bucket = 1 To n
For balls = 0 To n
p_update(balls) = 0
For prior_balls = 0 To balls
p_update(balls) = p_update(balls) + p_prior(prior_balls) * _
p_next_bucket_balls(balls - prior_balls, prior_balls, n, bucket, n, cap)
Next
Next
p_prior = p_update
Next
p_capped_buckets = p_update(n)
End Function
Function expected_max_buckets#(n#)
Dim cap#
For cap = 0 To n
expected_max_buckets = expected_max_buckets + (1 - p_capped_buckets(n, cap))
Next
End Function
Sub test32()
Dim p_cumm#(0 To 32)
Dim cap#
For cap# = 0 To 32
p_cumm(cap) = p_capped_buckets(32, cap)
Next
For cap = 1 To 32
Debug.Print " ", cap, Format(p_cumm(cap) - p_cumm(cap - 1), "0.000000")
Next
End Sub
For 32 balls and buckets, I get an expected maximum number of balls in the buckets of about 3.532941.
Output to compare to ahmad's:
1 0.000000
2 0.029273
3 0.516311
4 0.361736
5 0.079307
6 0.011800
7 0.001417
8 0.000143
9 0.000012
10 0.000001
11 0.000000
12 0.000000
13 0.000000
14 0.000000
15 0.000000
16 0.000000
17 0.000000
18 0.000000
19 0.000000
20 0.000000
21 0.000000
22 0.000000
23 0.000000
24 0.000000
25 0.000000
26 0.000000
27 0.000000
28 0.000000
29 0.000000
30 0.000000
31 0.000000
32 0.000000