Worst case
Every time the binary search code makes a decision, it eliminates half of the remaining elements from consideration. So you're dividing the number of elements by 2 with each decision.
How many times can you divide by 2 before you are down to only a single element? If n is the starting number of elements and x is the number of times you divide by 2, we can write this as:
n / (2 * 2 * 2 * ... * 2) = 1 [the '2' is repeated x times]
or, equivalently,
n / 2^x = 1
or, equivalently,
n = 2^x
So log base 2 of n gives you x, which is the number of decisions being made.
Finally, you might ask, if I used log base 2, why is it also OK to write it as log base 10, as you have done? The base does not matter because the difference is only a constant factor which is "ignored" by Big O notation.
Average case
I see that you also asked about the average case. Consider:
- There is only one element in the array that can be found on the first try.
- There are only two elements that can be found on the second try. (Because after the first try, we chose either the right half or the left half.)
- There are only four elements that can be found on the third try.
You can see the pattern: 1, 2, 4, 8, ... , n/2. To express the same pattern going in the other direction:
- Half the elements take the maximum number of decisions to find.
- A quarter of the elements take one fewer decision to find.
- etc.
Since half of the elements take the maximum amount of time, it doesn't matter how much less time the other elements take. We could assume that all elements take the maximum amount of time, and even if half of them actually take 0 time, our assumption would not be more than double whatever the true average is. We can ignore "double" since it is a constant factor. So the average case is the same as the worst case, as far as Big O notation is concerned.