Roulette prediction

Question

I need to implement a Roulette Prediction System (Roulette Calculator). The scenario is: The player put on the system the values from roulette, and the system tip to him the best bet and the amount. The system needs to be able to tip the best bet or the possible best bets. What's the algorithm to solve that problem? I'm reading about Generic Algorithm.

I think it's possible, is a lot of systems on the web they do this, an example is SpinAtaque.

is there even a way to do this? isn't roulette pretty much random assuming the wheel is fair? — luke, Jul 01 '10 at 23:04
in Roulette, it's entirely down to chance whether you win or lose. There's no way to play the odds, and because the odds are stacked against you, you always lose in the long run. Like Global Thermonuclear War, the only way to win is not to play. — Anon., Jul 01 '10 at 23:07
Dito, as far as I know the product of probability to win and pay-out is equal for all possible tips. The bank has a small advantage because players always lose at zero. — Daniel Brückner, Jul 01 '10 at 23:08
Maybe he means the input is the set of values on the wheel of a roulette style game and the output is the best possible bet given that input. — Jherico, Jul 01 '10 at 23:08
@Daniel Brückner: "players always lose at zero" unless they have a bet on zero. — Mark Byers, Jul 01 '10 at 23:12
@Mark Byers: Right, I thought you cannot bet on zero but you can. Although the pay-out matches the probability to win if zero would not exist. The existence of zero yields the small advantage for the bank. — Daniel Brückner, Jul 01 '10 at 23:30

score 10 · Answer 1 · answered Jul 01 '10 at 23:05

10

In roulette future results are independent of past results. If red comes up seven times in a row it does not change the fact that the probability of the next one being red is still 50/50 (ignoring the zero).

If you want a casino game where the history is relevant, take a look at Blackjack and card counting.

EDIT: If you are interested in exploiting the mechanical properties of a roulette wheel, read Fortune's Formula by William Poudstone, which includes an account of Claude Shannon's experiments in this area.

answered Jul 01 '10 at 23:05

Dan Dyer

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Perfect, basicaly, i need to identify the cassino strategy. – Rigoni Jul 01 '10 at 23:13
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@Rigoni The casino's strategy is that every bet is a losing proposition. The house edge is about 2.7% for a European wheel and twice that for a US wheel. It doesn't matter where you place your chips, the expected value is the same and you will lose in the long run. – Dan Dyer Jul 01 '10 at 23:16
I understand when you said about the probability are always 50/50, but there is same strategies, think like this: If i bet $1 on a X number and I lose, i bet again in the same number with $2 , and i lose, i bet again with $3 in the same number, i spended 6 dolars, and now i bet $4 in the same number and i win, with 4 i win $8, I gained 2 dolars. If you repeat the bet in the same, you'll win one day, and you win more than you have bet. Did you understand? Tanks – Rigoni Jul 01 '10 at 23:20
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@Rigoni You are describing the Martingale System. Theoretically it works, but only if you have an infinite bankroll and there is no house limit on how big a bet you can place. If either of those variables are constrained you will eventually lose all of your money. – Dan Dyer Jul 01 '10 at 23:23
You are right about. I'm not a player and i wont be never. Check the SpinAtaque software, is the same idea. Many tanks Dan. Ronaldo – Rigoni Jul 01 '10 at 23:29
@Rigoni Software like that is based on the false assumption (the (Gambler's Fallacy)[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy]) that previous events predict future events, which isn't the case for a fair roulette wheel. – Nick Johnson Nov 02 '11 at 23:49

score 5 · Accepted Answer · answered Jul 01 '10 at 23:09

Assuming a fair wheel, the only strategy I'm aware of is timing the wheel. If you know the angular velocity of the wheel and ball, you can predict with some non-trivial edge an arc of the wheel where the ball will land.

Ed Thorpe (of Beat the Dealer fame) did this with a wearable computer that he built back in the late 50's. This assumes that you can place your bet while the wheel is already spinning (but before it begins to slow down).

Roulette prediction

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