How to understand output from a Multiclass Neural Network

Question

Built a flow in Azure ML using a Neural network Multiclass module (for settings see picture).

Some more info about the Multiclass:

The data flow is simple, split of 80/20.

Preparation of the data is made before it goes into Azure. Data looks like this:

My problem comes when I want to make sense of the output and if possible transform/calculate the output to probabilities. Output looks like this:

My question: If scored probabilities output for my model is 0.6 and scored labels = 1, how sure is the model of the scored labels 1? And how sure can I be that actual outcome will be a 1?

Can I safely assume that a scored probabilities of 0.80 = 80% chance of outcome? Or what type of outcomes should I watch out for?

Yes a little, I upvoted it. But I am hoping for more answers — Alexander Johansson, Aug 30 '18 at 06:01
I don't think you are going to get - this is pretty much standard staff; but what part remains unclear? — desertnaut, Aug 30 '18 at 08:34
I read your "My answer in Predict classes or class probabilities?" but still didn't get it. Is there a way for me to calculate the actual probabilities in % from the "scored probabilities"? — Alexander Johansson, Aug 31 '18 at 12:04
?? - You are already getting them - they *are* your Scored Probabilities, 0.973 is 97.3% etc... Strictly speaking, probabilities are numbers in [0,1] such the ones you get, the % conversion is just for easier communication... — desertnaut, Aug 31 '18 at 12:07

desertnaut · Accepted Answer · 2018-08-24T11:57:57.860

To start with, your are in a binary classification setting, not in a multi-class one (we normally use this term when number of classes > 2).

If scored probabilities output for my model is 0.6 and scored labels = 1, how sure is the model of the scored labels 1?

In practice, the scored probabilities are routinely interpreted as the confidence of the model; so, in this example, we would say that your model has 60% confidence that the particular sample belongs to class 1 (and, complementary, 40% confidence that it belongs to class 0).

And how sure can I be that actual outcome will be a 1?

If you don't have any alternate means of computing such outcomes yourself (e.g. a different model), I cannot see how this question is different from your previous one.

Can I safely assume that a scored probabilities of 0.80 = 80% chance of outcome?

This is the kind of statement that would drive a professional statistician mad; nevertheless, the clarifications above regarding the confidence should be enough for your purposes (they are enough indeed for ML practitioners).

My answer in Predict classes or class probabilities? should also be helpful.

How to understand output from a Multiclass Neural Network

1 Answers1