HotSpot inlining policy is far from being trivial. There are many factors and heuristics that affect inlining.
What matters most, is the size and the "hotness" of the method, and the total inlining depth. Whether a method is final or not, is not important.
HotSpot can easily inline virtual methods, too. It can even inline polymorphic methods, if there are no more than 2 frequent receivers. There is an epic post describing in detail how such polymorhic calls work.
To analyze how methods are inlined in a particular case, use the following diagnostic JVM options:
java -XX:+UnlockDiagnosticVMOptions -XX:+PrintCompilation -XX:+PrintInlining
This will output the full compilation tree with a reason for each method, why it was inlined or not:
java.util.regex.Pattern$Start::match (90 bytes)
@ 44 java.util.regex.Pattern$BmpCharProperty::match (55 bytes) inline (hot)
\-> TypeProfile (331146/331146 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$BmpCharProperty
@ 14 java.lang.String::charAt (25 bytes) inline (hot)
\-> TypeProfile (502732/502732 counts) = java/lang/String
@ 1 java.lang.String::isLatin1 (19 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 12 java.lang.StringLatin1::charAt (28 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 21 java.lang.StringUTF16::charAt (11 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 2 java.lang.StringUTF16::checkIndex (9 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 2 java.lang.StringUTF16::length (5 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 5 java.lang.String::checkIndex (46 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 7 java.lang.StringUTF16::getChar (60 bytes) (intrinsic)
@ 19 java.util.regex.Pattern$CharPredicate::is (0 bytes) virtual call
@ 36 java.util.regex.Pattern$Branch::match (66 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 36 java.util.regex.Pattern$GroupTail::match (111 bytes) inline (hot)
\-> TypeProfile (56997/278159 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$GroupTail
\-> TypeProfile (221162/278159 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$Branch
@ 70 java.util.regex.Pattern$BranchConn::match (11 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 70 java.util.regex.Pattern$LastNode::match (45 bytes) inline (hot)
\-> TypeProfile (56854/113708 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$LastNode
\-> TypeProfile (56854/113708 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$BranchConn
@ 7 java.util.regex.Pattern$Branch::match (66 bytes) inline (hot)
\-> TypeProfile (56598/56598 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$Branch
@ 32 java.util.regex.Pattern$Branch::match (66 bytes) inline (hot)
@ 32 java.util.regex.Pattern$GroupHead::match (47 bytes) already compiled into a big method
\-> TypeProfile (66852/267408 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$GroupHead
\-> TypeProfile (200556/267408 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$Branch
@ 32 java.util.regex.Pattern$Branch::match (66 bytes) recursive inlining is too deep
@ 32 java.util.regex.Pattern$GroupHead::match (47 bytes) already compiled into a big method
\-> TypeProfile (66852/267408 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$GroupHead
\-> TypeProfile (200556/267408 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$Branch
@ 50 java.util.regex.Pattern$GroupHead::match (47 bytes) already compiled into a big method
\-> TypeProfile (334260/334260 counts) = java/util/regex/Pattern$GroupHead