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I have hazard rates for different time periods and I estimated survival probabilities for different time periods. I would like to estimate survival probabilities for future time periods.

Here is the table I created on excel hazard rates & survival probabilities:

data

For survival probability in year 1, I used the following formula

Q(1) = exp(-h(1)*dt), dt = 1

where h(1) is hazard rate between year 0 and year 1

Q(2) = Q(1)*exp(-h(2)*dt)), dt = 1,

where h(2) is hazard rate between year 1 and year 2

How do I estimate survival probabilities for future years where I dont have hazard rates for future years?

Any help would be appreciated - even if its in python/R/excel. Thanks in advance

Srinivasan Gopalan
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  • Except for the first point, this is pretty much linear. You could assume 0.25% and not be far off. What else can you do? – Tim Roberts Jul 17 '21 at 03:04

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