Mathematically, this is a hard problem, and there are a few solutions you might consider.
Dislcaimer: Mathematical jargon ahead.
As you probably already know, the normalcdf function is used to calculate probabilities of normal random variables. Because a normal distribution is continuous, the corresponding probability density function (normalpdf) does not itself give probabilities, (in contrast to discrete distributions like binomial or geometric distributions). Instead, the area under the curve gives the probability that the normal random variable falls within a range of values. So, the normalcdf function you seek is the area under a section of the normalpdf function.
Mathematically, finding the area under a continuous curve is a fundamental problem of calculus. The solution to this type of problem is called an integral and integrating a function over a range of numbers means finding the area under the curve and between the lowest value in the range to the highest.
In most circumstances, we could just integrate the pdf function to get the cdf function, then evaluate it wherever we want. The heart of the problem, and the reason that an algorithm in Java is not as simple as one might think, is that normalpdf function does not have a closed form integral- it's value cannot be calculated in any finite number of steps. So, values of the normalcdf function are particularly elusive.
There are two main classes of solutions for the problem.
1. Numerical Integration Techniques
Numerical integration techniques solve the problem by approximating the area under the curve geometrically. The area is divided into rectangles or other shapes of equal or varying widths, with the height of each being given by the pdf function. The sum of the areas of the rectangle is an approximation of the area under the curve, which is the corresponding probability. These technique can be used to compute values to arbitrary precision, but is more computationally expensive than class 2. Using better approximations (e.g. Simpson's rule) improves computation. A simple numeric integration method follows.
public static double normCDF(double z)
{ double LeftEndpoint = -100;
int nRectangles = 100000;
double runningSum = 0;
double x;
for(int n = 0; n < nRectangles; n++){
x = LeftEndpoint + n*(z-LeftEndpoint)/nRectangles;
runningSum += Math.pow(Math.sqrt(2*Math.PI),-1)*Math.exp(-Math.pow(x,2)/2)*(z-LeftEndpoint)/nRectangles;
}
System.out.println(runningSum);
return runningSum;
}
2. Analytic Techniques
Analytic techniques take advantage of the fact that while the normalpdf does not have a closed-form integral, the pdf can be "converted" to a sum called a Taylor series, then integrated term-by-term. Basically, it turns the pdf into a sum of infinitely many simple functions, then integrates each one analytically, then adds together all of the integrals. Since this is an analytic procedure, a programmer need only include the integral series in the program after computing the coefficients. The precision of the result just depends on how many terms of the sum you include in the calculation, and tends to approach accurate values much sooner than numerical integration techniques. For example, the solution by Mohammad Aldefrawy computes just five coefficients. Below is a method that includes the computation of coefficients, so you one could compute values to arbitrary precision (Actually, the normalcdf series isn't computed directly. Instead, the coefficients of the related error function are computed then converted by a linear transformation). However, since computation of the coefficients involves the factorial function, one experiences memory issues for substantially large numbers of coefficients. Thankfully, this method returns values with much higher precision in a fraction of the iterations required by methods in the previous class of solutions to yield similar results.
public static double normalCDF(double x){
System.out.println(0.5*(1+erf(x/Math.sqrt(2))));
return 0.5*(1+erf(x/Math.sqrt(2)));
}
public static double erf(double z)
{
int nTerms = 315;
double runningSum = 0;
for(int n = 0; n < nTerms; n++){
runningSum += Math.pow(-1,n)*Math.pow(z,2*n+1)/(factorial(n)*(2*n+1));
}
return (2/Math.sqrt(Math.PI))*runningSum;
}
static double factorial(int n){
if(n == 0) return 1;
if(n == 1) return 1;
return n*factorial(n-1);
}
Other functions
For the inverse function, since we used the error function in the normalCDF method, we can use the inverse error function in a similar way. Again, we obtain the coefficients of the inverse error function analytically, then compute them as needed in the method.
public static double invErf(double z)
{
int nTerms = 315;
double runningSum = 0;
double[] a = new double[nTerms + 1];
double[] c = new double[nTerms + 1];
c[0]=1;
for(int n = 1; n < nTerms; n++){
double runningSum2=0;
for (int k = 0; k <= n-1; k++){
runningSum2 += c[k]*c[n-1-k]/((k+1)*(2*k+1));
}
c[n] = runningSum2;
runningSum2 = 0;
}
for(int n = 0; n < nTerms; n++){
a[n] = c[n]/(2*n+1);
runningSum += a[n]*Math.pow((0.5)*Math.sqrt(Math.PI)*z,2*n+1);
}
return runningSum;
}
public static double invNorm(double A){
return (2/Math.sqrt(2))*invErf(2*A-1);
}
I don't have a method for the lognormal function, but you could obtain one using the same idea.
